Developing and using new statistical methods for the optimization of the
prediction of meteorological parameters.
In all EU countries, and of course in Greece, in the coming years a significant
amount of energy should be obtained from renewable sources. This is directly
related to the need of high quality local forecasts of environmental parameters.
The techniques used today by the global research community in this direction are
mainly based on numerical prediction models. These systems respond very well to
the general description of air and sea state. However, when focusing on local
area forecasts, systematic deviations appear in some cases. Under the WP 4 the
information obtained by WP 1-3 will be used for the development of new
statistical approaches that support the optimization and the local adaptation of
the direct outputs of numerical environmental prediction models. The main target
will be the correct encapsulation of possible peculiarities/characteristics of
the area in study. This will be achieved via the accurate description of the
data and their geometric properties.
Methodology
The differential equations obtained in WP 2 describe the curves of minimum length and therefore the distance between two distributions or data sets. These boundary value problems will be numerically solved by the methods developed in WP 3 and will provide results that will be exploited in the framework of WP4 in order to modify traditional algorithms that our - and other - research group have used so far to improve the results of numerical prediction models. The main aim is to take into account the correct geometric structure avoiding simplifications of the Euclidean space. These new optimization methods will be tested in selected areas of Greece where the use of renewable energy sources is of increased interest. Using corresponding observations evaluation-validation studies will be also performed in selected areas of Greece where the the use of renewable energy sources is of increased interest.
The content of this WP in a poster.
Deliverables
·
Internal Technical Report.
·
Computer code and programs.
·
Paper submitted to a scientific journal and presentations in international
conferences.
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